End of a Decade in Technology

Hey there all,

As I am sitting in my chair during the Christmas holiday, I realized that we are actually coming to an end of an entire decade. Wow, it seems just like a year or two ago I was sitting in the server room waiting for all hell to break lose when the clock struck 12:00 am January 1, 2000. Remember stocking up on water, food, generators, etc. Looking back 10 years, it is funny.

This got me thinking (OH NO!) What have been the most impactful technology ideas, gadgets, concepts, etc, that have changed our world, or at least MY world during the past decade. So, here goes.

First, the Honorable Mentions that didn't quite make it but were important or at least interesting.
A.  Home Theater systems, including Projectors, HDMI, Surround Sound, and Blue-Ray technologies.
B.  Clocks that sync with satellites.  I just think these are cool
C.  Technology Certifications.  With the economy the way it has been since y2k for technology, there is going to be a HUGE resurgence in finding and keeping technology qualified people.
D.  Microsoft lawsuits.  Anyone who really follows this has found this entertaining.
E .  Cisco remains on top of neworking technologies, but other venders are catching up quick.  3Com can't decided if they are or aren't a networking company.
F.  Printers.  Printers are nearly free, it is the supplies that cost an arm and leg.  Venders have been giving printers away knowing that they are going to get you with the ink!
G.  HP and Compaq merge.  Coming from the Compaq server side, this really was bad.  SmartStart 6.x was the end of me and Netware.

11.  USB thumb drives. I remember sitting in a class in 2001 with an 8mb drive that I paid nearly $80. The idea of portable data has begun.

10.  Apple iPod. Actually, the iEverything craze back in 2001 has really brough the idea of carrying it with you to a new level. And..to be very honest, this whole idea actually started back in the mid 90's. It wasn't until the iPod came out that it really caught on.

9.  Web pages. I lumped all of these together because they collectively changed how we do things. MySpace, Facebook, Wikipedia, YouTube, Skype, Hulu, Flickr, Digg, and LinkedIn. These sites have changed the way we communicate.

8.  BlackBerry. I know that many of you are in love with your smartphone, either Windows based or Android based, but all of these owe their success to the BlackBerry from RIM. Over a decade later, RIM is still the cream of the crop as far personal communication devices. Personally, going from the whole doc and sync with the palms to the whenever real time sync of the blackberry made my life SO much better.

7.  Nintendo Wii. A gamer at heart, I simply cannot say enough about how Nintendo continues to surprise me. They took the old idea of a lethargic video game and made it into something that actually got us moving again. Kudos! Actually, I think it was Dance Dance Revolution (DDR) that got it all going in the arcade scene.

6.  Novell dropping Netware as a platform and embracing Open Source technology. I am fairly sure that this will not be on most radar maps for the top technology things, however, it was very significant worldwide. In the USA, RedHat is still the biggest Open Source company.  Worldwide, SuSE Linux, now owned by Novell, is certainly the largest. Embracing the Open Source community, Novell had to break with its long standing (and IMHO) one of the best network OS of all times, Netware, and embrace a new concept of making money while giving their product away. With eDirectory, ZenWorks, Teaming plus Conferencing, and all sorts of Linux community add-on, Novell will be around for a long time. However, the road has been difficult. They pretty much had to tell their old school engineers goodbye and try to get the very stubborn and cynical Open Source community to embrace their ideas.

5.  64-bit computing. Again, the world has not seen this since Windows 95. There wasn't any fanfare or earth shaking announcements. Yet, moving from 32bit to 64bit computing is REALLY huge.

4.  FCC moving over to Digital TV/VoIP communication systems. Now, maybe you are asking, "Why are these two together?" GREAT question! Actually there is a long story about this that I won't get into here. But basically, moving over to digital TV gave communication companies the needed frequencies to advance wireless communication systems. This has been the great bottleneck since the mid/late 90's. Now, with all these frequencies opened, we are going to see the 3G and 4G networks start to come to life, and gone will be the days of having to pay for analog minutes. It will all be data soon.

3.  New windows OS released. I know what many of you are thinking; VISTA, right? Well actually, since we are talking about the decade, we have to look back a ways here. With Windows 2000, Microsoft FINALLY began catching up with what Novell has been doing for YEARS; directory services. Novell calls it eDirectory, Microsoft calls it Active Directory. Coinsidence, nope! Microsoft hired a bunch of ex-novell employees to develop their directory platform. So with Windows 2000, Microsoft steps to the plate with a real enterprise system. The only problem was that they had TWO completely different OS's; Windows 98 and Windows 2000.

Enter Windows ME, Major Excrement. For those who have not had the pleasure, Windows ME makes Vista look like super model! I think as soon as they released this version of Windows, Microsoft should have kicked themselves in the rear. What a terrible OS.

So then, they come out with Windows XP. Finally a really stable platform! Well, okay. It was MUCH better than Window ME. They got A LOT of guff for the security issues, so they came out with Windows XP sp2 which virtually broke everything until programmers got their act together and started programming code the RIGHT way instead of exploiting MS flaws to make their systems work.

So, we have been fat, dumb and happy running Windows XP for a few years. But something critical happened. #4 and 64 bit computing. M$ tries to come out with a 64 bit XP version, but it too is a disaster. How is Microsoft going to address this issue? Windows Vista!

So, Vista comes out with all sorts of fanfare, but there is only one problem. IT DOESN'T WORK. I have yet to come across an administrator who says that everything was such a great move when they installed VISTA. Vista was really a gift to every hardware manufacturer and tech person. We have had so much work that it has been difficult to keep up.

After a few years with Vista, again, Microsoft puts up their hands and says, "Oops, My Bad!" when it comes to Vista, and releases Windows 7. Now, again, (IMHO) Windows 7 should really be Vista SP3 and not a full release. However, with all the bad pub on Vista and horror stories, I believe the M$ decided to take what they had, fix it, and put a new sticker on it calling it Windows 7.

2.  VMWare and System/Datacenter Virtualization. This whole concept has flown under the consumer radar. However, the tech people have been falling in love with this idea for years now. Suddenly, have one piece of hardware for one OS is old and archaic. We run server farms and workstation farms from a single location. We can upgrade a single system and affect 1000's of users with a single click.

And my top technology concept of the decade is:

1.  Wi-Fi/ Wireless. I believe this has been and will continue to be one of the most paradigm shifting concepts for a long time. The paradigm use to be that you had to goto technology. You went to a computer or computer lab, you goto hot spots, you goto your TV, etc. Now, with Wi-Fi and wireless, technology goes with you and comes directly to you. No longer do you have to "goto work". Work is suddenly and ALWAYS with you. The idea or concept of in by 8 and out by 5 is done. Our identities of work time, family time, leisure time have melted together; a concept industry is still trying to figure out how best to deal with. What constitutes a work day, work week, etc? Can you get run errands while technically "at work" knowing that you will be working at 8 pm? Do I have to be sitting in my office chair to be considered "working?"

So, looking back is a good thing but it wouldn't be complete without prognosticating the future. Even weatherman can look back and say "I predict that yesterday will be 25 degrees with light snow showers." and be right most of the time. :) It is looking forward that gets a bit complicated.

With that in mind, I have a few ideas. The biggest thing I can say to you is if your head is spinning after this decade:

"Hold on, you ain't seen nothing yet"

10.  3-D worlds. We have seen it in the past decade, but nothing compared to what is in store for us. Second Life, World of Warcraft was just the start.

9.  Size doesn't matter!  TV's will not be about size.  (what did you think I was talking about?  :)  ) There is a feasible limit to how big a TV can get without getting into making rooms bigger. It is going to be about the amount of information presented to the user along with 3-D display so that there is a perspective that is different, yet the same, from any angle of the room.  Maybe the TV will be placed in the center of the room instead of against a wall?
8.  Disposable computing. It is coming to a point where technology and computing will be a cheap and as disposable as pencils and paper. There will not be a divide between have's and have-not’s but rather the division will be between those who chose to use it and those who refuse to use it.

7.  Proliferation of portable devices. In the next 2-3 years there are going to be so many portable devices that it is going to be a gadget frenzy. I remember the days of having a cell phone, 2 pagers, palm pilot, walkie talkie, two laptops, and a bunch of other personal gadgets. It is going to get MUCH worse as more and more separate devices come out with 10 times as much battery life as older gadgets. When I say "older" I am really talking about 2-3 years old which is eternity in technology life.

6.  Malware and viruses will be gone. There is a huge push to virtualize just about everything we do so that there is a clean platform for everything. The OS becomes completely irrelevant when applications are virtualized. Much like dealing with your TiVO or other gadget, you never really deal with the underlying OS. You only want it to do what you want it to do. Enter Virtualized technology. Take all of those application you use and virtualize them, and never touch your OS again.

5.  Along with the past 3 predictions you are going to see computing that relies entirely on being connected to the "network" Netbooks are just an early generation of these devices. While they have some limited computing technology, their WHOLE purpose is to connect you to something online that will serve up applications for you to use. Google apps, YouTube, Facebook, or some back end virtualized desktop, RDP connection or whatever. Cloud computing is here and will continue to grow.

4.  Broad spectrums of computing will come together in standards. Right now, there is a proliferation of computing technologies that saturate the market in their own niche. You have to have a device that is centered on a particular piece of technology. While it may do many things, it doesn't do it all. There GPS units, digital multi meters, mp3/4 players, digital text books, TV's, cell phones, and the list goes on. I believe there is going to be a coming together of all these technologies so that there is a standard that can shared by all.

3.  "It's a small world after all". While we will continue to have relationships of proximity, we will not be bound by miles. We have already found that MySpace and Facebook are bringing us close together. Industries are seeing that their systems are linked worldwide. Our world is going to shrink, A LOT. We are going to have access to everyone and everything we need to do our jobs, entertainment, leisure, etc. We jokingly ask each other, what is it going to take to get to a point that we start to resemble the people on the spaceship on the Disney movie, "Wall-e"? Dinner in a cup anyone? (Maruchan Instant Lunch), Virtual Golf anyone? (Nintendo Wii).

2.  Spanish might become the world technology language. I am going out on a limb, however, writing might be on the wall for this one. Most systems worldwide are still installed with English as the primary language. There has been an effort to try to code system in other languages and have systems "translate" the code into machine language. Eventually, technology will catch up to this practice so that it really will not matter much. When that happens, Spanish may become the preferred language of many systems.

1. Open source will rule the world. Yes, I am predicting it. Microsoft/Google, and every other software company will embrace an Open Source platform as their host and offer their services either on top of it or as a conduit use to connect to the network. Microsoft days as a completely closed system is numbered and I believe they know it. They are just trying to figure out what services they have to offer that are going to make them money.


So there you have it folks.  10 years from now, we might look back on what I am writing an consider me as some great profit of things to come.  Or, nobody will ever read this, I never have a following, and I will be a washed up tech person serving as a Walmart greeter next to Walter.  Either way, I put my thoughts of the past and things to come down.

Of this I am sure, God exists, and I am not him.

God bless us all in the coming year and decade to come.

Tom

Something Odd

Hey All,

I have fixed, repaired, and engineered many computer systems over the past 17 years.  I am often learning new things.  It is a lot of fun and quite entertaining, especially for someone who is OCD like me.  :)

Recently, something new and strange came across my desk. 

It started out like a normal project.  A fairly new laptop computer that had a bad video card.  One long beep followed by two short beeps.  As most of you may know, laptop computers have most everything integrated onto the motherboard.  So, as I expected, I was looking at a motherboard replacement.

This was an HP dv9825nr.  As I started looking for a motherboard, I was seeing $350ish dollars.  I took this laptop apart.  WHAT A MESS.  I stopped counting at 60 screws, and I still hadn't gotten the motherboard out of the plastic yet.  It took nearly 30 minutes just to get the motherboard out of the plastic.

As I talked with the customer, spending that kind of money on a repair was just not worth it.  If you add the cost of the motherboard, labor, and the fact that the computer is about 2 years old, it might be worth investing in another laptop.

In my search I found some unusual repair methods, particularly geared to motherboard repair for the nvidia video chipset and the Lenovo T41.  There is this process called "reflow" where you heat the motherboard with a propane torch or heat gun to fix the video chipset problems.  WTH is up with that.  Next they will be showing the process of using a hammer to fix any keyboard.

However, I saw a bunch of these articles, and after consulting with the customer, we decided to give it a try.  After all, what was the worst that could happen, bbq motherboard?

So, I went down to the local hardware store and rented a heat gun.  I protected all of the plastic components with aluminum foil so they wouldn't melt and began to heat the motherboard.  I did this for about 10 minutes.  I let it sit overnight.

I then began the tedious process of putting this silly thing back together.  I had to undo it 4-5 times simply because I forgot to fish some wire through or attach something.  This is perhaps the worse laptop I have ever taken apart.

Anyway, I got it all back together and wouldn't you know it, IT WORKED.  Well I'll be dog gone.

So now, I have a new tool to add to my computer repair kit.  1 heat gun.

Windows 7

Will Windows 7 save the world, solve world hunger, make peace with all nations?  Of course not.  However, since Vista, one might gather that Windows 7 is truely a Godsent OS.  Not since Windows ME (Major Excrement) has there been as much excitement for a better OS.  But I caution, hold on.

There are two very major clashing issues that have got to be considered before making the leap.

First, Windows 7 is not an upgrade to anything.  It should be considered a new OS and treated as such.  Does anyone remember the "upgrade" from Office 2003 to Office 2007?  While it is an 'Upgrade', users had to relearn many of the common tasks.  This alone caused consternation in the user community.  While many users will learn and adapt, the power users, who knew all the shortcuts things to do things quickly, suddenly found themselves having to take more time to learn the new features.  With Windows 7, know that you are going to have to learn it all over again.  Maybe this is the perfect time to switch to Linux Desktop?

Second, 64 bit processing.  This is HUGE.  Not since windows 95 where we went from 16 bit to native 32bit processing has there been such a change.  For the past 15 years, programmers have been programming all their software to function in the win32 bit environment (save a few early adoptors and linux heads).  Now, ALL applications on the face of the planet, all drivers, all EVERYTHING pertaining to the desktop has to be rewritten.  This is not going to happen overnight, nor is it ever going to go smoothly.  This is one the the big issues with Vista64.  Not many software vendors got ready for it, so, WE HAD PROBLEMS, (understatement even in all caps).

So, Microsoft gave the hardware vendors a big sloppy kiss.  If you decide that you want Windows 7 plan on new hardware.  "But I just purchased this computer 2 years ago."  SO FREAKING WHAT!  Microsoft and the hardware vendors have teamed up to give you and OS that requires so much more hardware. 

Well, maybe I am stretching it a bit.  Will your 2 year old hardware really work?  Probably.  Will it work well?  Not for me it didn't.  I had a 1 year old computer running Vista 64.  I upgraded to Windows 7, ick. 

PLEASE DO NOT PURCHASE HOME PREMIUM VERSION

One nice feature that you get with Professional and Ultimate that is NOT in the home version is "XP Mode"  You have to download and install XP Mode but it will allow those applications that have not been written for Vista or Windows 7 to run. 

Now the XP mode is really cool.  It is really giving you the ability to virtualize applications.  Maybe I'll talk about this another day.

Tom